o matter who succeeds Carleton S. Fiorina as chief
executive at Hewlett-Packard,
the challenge will be the same: to shift the company's center of gravity
to businesses with more ample profits.
One swift step in that direction - and a step Hewlett-Packard has
considered, according to an industry executive close to the company -
would be to buy Eastman
Kodak or Xerox
to complement and expand Hewlett-Packard's most profitable division, the
printer, ink and imaging business.
Currently, the company's printing and imaging division contributes
nearly 75 percent of its profits, but represents only 30 percent of its
$81 billion in yearly revenues. The rest of the company, particularly its
personal computer and corporate computer businesses, are clearly not
carrying their weight.
For the long term, industry analysts say, Hewlett-Packard has three
options - break up the company, improve the efficiency of its current
businesses, or make a sizable acquisition to add to its profitable units
like services or printing.
Hewlett-Packard has closely studied potential deals on that front,
including Eastman Kodak and Xerox, an industry executive said. The stock
market value of Kodak is $9.8 billion; Xerox's value is $14.2 billion.
Hewlett-Packard has the cash to make such a big move. It has more than
$14 billion in foreign profits that qualify for a one-time tax break
passed by Congress last fall, if it brings the money back to the United
States for investment. In an interview yesterday, Robert P. Wayman,
Hewlett-Packard's chief financial officer and interim chief executive,
said he had not "looked at either of those companies recently."
Hewlett-Packard has insisted that the ouster of Ms. Fiorina on
Wednesday is not a sign that the company has lost faith in the course she
set. Ms. Fiorina championed the controversial purchase of Compaq
Computer in 2002, a move that greatly increased Hewlett-Packard's
dependence on the cutthroat PC business and the market for the larger
computers that run corporate data centers.
"Our strategy is totally unchanged," Mr. Wayman said.
Patricia C. Dunn, a director who is temporarily stepping in as
Hewlett-Packard's chairman, repeatedly said in a conference call on
Wednesday that the board would search for a new chief executive with
"hands-on" skills. What the company needed, Ms. Dunn suggested, was a
seasoned leader to move the company more quickly and smoothly on its
current path.
When a new chief executive comes aboard, the assumption will be that
that person supports the current strategy, Mr. Wayman said. "That said,
you don't hire a chief executive officer to be totally operational," he
said. "And strategy needs to be reviewed from time to time."
Laura Conigliaro, an analyst at Goldman
Sachs & Company, said that Hewlett-Packard's shareholders would do
best if the company were split into separate companies. She estimates that
the break-up value of Hewlett-Packard at $27 to $28 a share, with the
printing business alone worth about $20 a share. Hewlett-Packard shares
closed yesterday at $21.48 a share, off 5 cents, after rising 7 percent
Wednesday on the news of Ms. Fiorina's departure.
The logical split, Ms. Conigliaro said, would be to have the printing
and imaging division become a separate company, run by Vyomesh Joshi, the
executive vice president who now manages that division. A second company,
Ms. Conigliaro said, would likely be the corporate computing divisions
including server computers, storage, services and software, led by Ann M.
Livermore, an executive vice president who currently oversees those
operations.
"But in a breakup," Ms. Conigliaro said, "the PC business would become
an orphan," a prime candidate to be sold to another company just as I.B.M.
last December agreed to sell its PC business to Lenovo
of China.
Even if there are any strategic changes at Hewlett-Packard, they will
most likely not come for several months, after a new chief executive is
named. Outside and inside candidates will be considered, but the outside
search has not yet begun. Mr. Joshi and Ms. Livermore are considered the
leading insiders.
So for the foreseeable future, Hewlett-Packard will focus on improving
the performance of its existing businesses. To do that, analysts say, will
require ruthless cost-cutting and quick moves into new markets where
profit margins are higher.
A leading candidate for expense reduction, analysts say, is
Hewlett-Packard's corporate computer unit. The business has gross margins
- revenues minus the cost of goods sold - of 35 percent to 40 percent, A.
M. Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company,
estimated. But in the fiscal year ended last October, that division had
operating profits of $173 million on sales of $15.2 billion, as marketing,
staff and other expenses ate into profits.
Hewlett-Packard still sells proprietary systems, each with its own kind
of microprocessor engine and specialized software. Yet increasingly,
corporate customers are switching to lower-cost machines powered by Intel
processors and running Linux, a free operating system, or Windows from Microsoft.
The profit margins on the new machines, using the low-cost technology of
the PC world, are far lower than on proprietary systems.
The corporate computer business, Mr. Sacconaghi said, is "an extremely
difficult market, and Hewlett has to get maniacal about costs."
The imaging and printing division, however, offers better opportunities
for expanding into new and adjacent markets where profit margins are
higher.
Hewlett-Packard's market share in the conventional ink-jet and laser
printer markets is more than 40 percent. But Hewlett-Packard, analysts
note, is just beginning to make inroads in the market for big
multifunction printers, copiers and scanners, linked by networks in
corporations.
The market for such machines, currently costing $10,000 or more, has so
far been led by the traditional copier makers like Xerox, Ricoh, Minolta
and Canon.
Hewlett-Packard is trying to break in with lower-priced machines, in the
$2,000 to $3,000 range.
"H.P. is really good at networking and printing, so it's an obvious
area for growth," Mr. Sacconaghi said.
Digital photos represent a huge potential market for Hewlett-Packard.
Digital cameras now outsell conventional film cameras, and Hewlett-Packard
is in that market. More important, Hewlett-Packard is trying to get as
many digital photos printed on its printers as possible.
But consumers are also printing digital photos at in-store kiosks and
online printing services, like Kodak's Ofoto. One reason a Kodak purchase
might be tempting to Hewlett-Packard, analysts say, is that Kodak has a
strong presence in both online and kiosk printing - the alternatives to
Hewlett-Packard's home printers for digital photo printing.
A hybrid strategy would be to keep the company together but
focus it entirely on the imaging business, broadly defined, said Mark R.
Anderson, publisher of the Strategic News Service, a technology
newsletter. Cutting-edge microprocessors are now designed for rendering
images in computer games, a form of imaging. Supercomputers that do
simulations of gene-folding and weather patterns, he added, were tackling
large-scale imaging problems. Fast-growing markets like medical imaging
would be opportunities, he said, and so would home media computers for
entertainment.
"I would focus on all the businesses through the prism of
serving the imaging mission, and get rid of lower-margin parts of some of
the businesses," Mr. Anderson said.
The abrupt exit of Ms. Fiorina might suggest turmoil at
Hewlett-Packard, but so far the company's corporate customers do not seem
distressed. "We're telling clients that the risk of having H.P. as a
supplier is no more than it was two days ago," said Carl Claunch, an
analyst at Gartner
Inc.
Ms. Fiorina's departure has revived a long-running debate about
Hewlett-Packard's future, one that is still unresolved.
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