In this programme Mark Anderson predicts the way the technology winds are blowing in 2011. Mark is the technology commentator who runs Strategic News Service. His trend spotting emails are subscribed to by some very influential people in the high tech industry. The magazine Fortune once described him as one of the “100 smartest people we know”.

At the end of every year, Mark Anderson takes a look ahead at 10 of the key things he thinks will prove to be significant over the coming 12 months. Here Global Business hears some of the future predictions and look back at some of the ones he made 12 months previously.

Listen now

Broadcast Times:

• Tue 4 Jan 2011 – 09:05 – BBC World Service
• Tue 4 Jan 2011 – 12:05 – BBC World Service
• Tue 4 Jan 2011 – 15:05 – BBC World Service
• Tue 4 Jan 2011 – 20:05 – BBC World Service
• Wed 5 Jan 2011 – 01:05 – BBC World Service
• Sat 8 Jan 2011 – 00:05 – BBC World Service
• Sun 9 Jan 2011 – 03:32 – BBC World Service

1. The Smartphone Market Breaks in Two: Secure / enterprise, vs. consumer / entertainment.
   • Android dominates – and balkanizes – the consumer Smartphone Market, with Apple close behind offering its Monolithic Operations.
   • RIM and XX dominate the Enterprise. XX should be Microsoft, but Apple gets it.
2. Carriers Grab Power: Google has interrupted a transition of power from Pipes to Boxes. Android gives carriers power, while the iOS takes it away. Whose walled garden do you prefer? Pray for Apple, if you are a user.
3. iTunes Seeds Its Own Competition: More real distribution competitors grow and prosper. Consumers want choice. This is a major business opportunity, on a global scale.
4. The Micro-App Ecosphere Hits a Money Wall: Prices quickly escalate, and suddenly there are two types of micro apps companies: big ones that charge and survive, and cute little ones that don’t.
5. Google Loses Its Way, failing to answer the critical question: “What Business Am I In?” even as Android, Google Phone, and e-ditions prosper (mostly without revenues). The company will be perceived as confused and unable to develop or support long-term strategy. Is this death by a thousand profitless successes?
6. The Year of the Electric Car, Part II: Real Production Numbers, Real Sales Numbers, Real Charging Stations Popping Up Like Weeds. Cars regain technology interest as a technology platform, fueled by burgeoning global sales growth, new nationalist entries, and all-electric models.
7. SNS CarryAlongs Remain the Fastest-Growing Segment in Computer Sales: We will see LOTS of new (9” x 7”) pads this year.
8. Data Matters: Oracle, the world’s largest database company, Takes Off, and emerges as a global platform. Competitor SAP suffers. The Larry Ellison/Mark Hurd team becomes as legendary as Gates and Shirley once were, and for the same reason: the ideal match of tech visionary with operating maven.
9. NetTV Is In, Cable Is Out: Penetration of IPTV use in the U.S. reaches 40%+. This marks a revolution in mass media. Cable and satellite suffer, and are wrong about customers not “cutting the cord.” Netflix benefits, and dominates the IPTV space, creating a breakout play for an already-amazing storybook company. Carriers (and countries) not providing real broadband suffer competitively. Old content players realize it is Dominate or Die in the new IP distribution world. New channels, and definitions of channels, abound.
10. E-books Go Mainstream: While paper book sales remain healthy, e-book fractional share of all book sales goes ballistic. E-reading becomes as common as eating with a spoon. U.S. wholesale e-book sales should meet or exceed $160MM per quarter during 2011. Compound Annual Growth Rates will remain over 140%.

Read more detail on these and other predictions for 2011
(SNS Subscriber login required)

Also, from KPLU Radio and NPR:

Strategic News Service publisher Mark Anderson shares his New Year’s predictions with KPLU’s Dave Meyer.

Listen here

]]> http://www.tapsns.com/blog/index.php/2010/12/sns-predictions-for-2011/feed/ 0 http://www.tapsns.com/blog/index.php/2010/01/bbc-global-business-here-comes-2010/ http://www.tapsns.com/blog/index.php/2010/01/bbc-global-business-here-comes-2010/#comments Wed, 06 Jan 2010 15:19:50 +0000 SNS http://www.tapsns.com/blog/?p=780 From BBC Global Business:

In Global Business this week Peter Day is in conversation with Mark Anderson, CEO of Strategic News Service(SNS).  In what is becoming a ‘Global Business’ tradition Peter Day learns some of his Top 10 predictions for 2010 and looks back at how successful last year’s predictions were.

About this programme by Peter Day

…

The USA is a nation which sort of invented itself, so it is not surprising that in American life there is a huge almost religious belief in the onwards and upwards progress of technology and invention; if it gets us into a global mess such as pollution, then high tech innovation can also get us out of it, that’s the assumption.

Mark and I discussed whether this faith in the progress of technology is not slightly misplaced. Maybe we should seek other aims for humanity after the huge disruption caused by the Credit Crunch?

Maybe we should rein in our appetites, be modest about our aspirations, forswear global travel, go local and seasonal in what we wear and eat? Maybe the upwards and upwards assumptions about technology are wrong?

Well, I could not get Mark to agree with me about much of that; he has a technology minded audience. But so, for that matter, does this programme Global Business.

It makes you wonder what – if anything – we will learn from the first great global economic crisis of the 21st century. And whether technology has any thing to do with it

Listen now (25 min)

When it comes to making predictions, it’s hard to beat Mark Anderson. Last month, the Strategic News Service publisher predicted Intel would face antitrust charges. Now, the Federal Trade Commission is suing the chip giant for using anti-competitive tactics. KPLU’s Dave Meyer asked Mark what he’s predicting for the New Year.

Listen Now

FRIDAY HARBOR, Washington, December 10, 2009 -  Mark Anderson, CEO of Strategic News Service, released his predictions tonight for 2010 at the fifth annual SNS Predictions Dinner at the Waldorf=Astoria in New York.  The global press in attendance included Bloomberg, the Financial Times, Business Week, The New York Times, Fortune, Le Monde, Strategy+Business and ZDNet among other business leaders.  His top ten predictions for technology for 2010 are:

1. 2010 will be The year of Platform Wars: netbooks, cell phones, pads, Cloud standards.  Clouds will tend to support the consumer world (Picnik, Amazon), enterprises will continue to build out their own data centers, and Netbook sector growth rates continue to post very large numbers.
2. 2010 will be The year of Operating System Wars: Windows 7 flavors, MacOS, Linux flavors, Symbian, Android, Chrome OS, Nokia Maemo 5. The winners, in order in unit sales: W7, MacOS, Android.  W7, ironically, by failure of imagination and by its PC-centric platform, actively clears space for others to take over the OS via mobile platforms.
3. All content goes mobile. Everything gets tagged, multi-channeled, and the walled gardens open up.  TV and movie content, particularly, break free of old trapped business models.  We are moving toward watching first-run TV and movies on phones, for a price.  Which leads to no. 4.
4. MobileApps and Mobile Content drive MicroPayments, which move from niche to mainstream payment models.  Payment for content will split along age lines, at around 35; above, pay; below, don’t pay.
5. The Phone vs. the PC: A Split Along Two Paths (enterprise vs. consumer)
   • fully integrated user experience, poor back-end (mail and calendar services, etc.) integration; the Apple environment;
   • splintered user experience, like WMobile vs. WPC, with integrated back end.
   • Windows sells integration in the plumbing, Apple does it on the screen.
   • Note: The phone is now the most interesting computer platform, and it is driving innovation: software, business models, distribution.  Netbooks are next up as drivers.
6. There will be a Cloud Catastrophe in 2010 that limits Cloud growth by raising security issues and restricting enterprise trust.  CIOs will see the cloud as the doorstep for industrial espionage.
7. A huge chasm opens in computing, between Consumer and Enterprise (government/business.), with Apple, Google and most Asian hardware companies in Consumer, and Dell, IBM, Cisco, and MS on the Enterprise side.  HP will straddle both.  Before 2010, talk was all about unifying consumer and enterprise.  Now, talk will be about their split.
8. Microsoft loses in its Consumer play: except for gaming, it is Game Over for MS in Consumer. This will make Consumer the place to be, where the most robust and exciting change artists will work.
9. News media that survive will move to the subscription model, in whole or in part, along age lines.  (See no. 4)
10. Connecting remote data to people and things in real time will lead to a series of exciting new devices and applications. Possible examples: real time comparison and recipe-driven shopping, facial recognition (in social spaces) linked to bios, self-guided tours by phone, voice-queried information about your personal environment.  Many of these are technically proved out today, but they will start to emerge as an exciting and brand new trend in applications in 2010.

Anderson included some predictions for the economic landscape as well:

1. China shows its weakness.  Will the bubble break?  Equity markets too volatile, banks are fake.  After the stumble, people start to see that China is also economically unreliable, for its own reasons.
2. Currency Wars intensify: world vs. China.
3. Corporate vs. Government Power: The new battle.  Countries are betrayed, corporations viewed with increased mistrust.
   • mercantilist vs. open markets
   • corporate (US, Japan, SK) vs. govt. (China, Russia)
4. Western Systems Remain Broken:
   • Congress: reelection costs and bribery
   • Healthcare: out-of-control premiums and operating costs
   • Higher Education: too-high tuition and operating costs
   • K12: Teaching and Learning: Failing and cost-independent
   • Finance: No reinstatement of Glass Steagall, no uptick rule, 133 banks dead 2009, 455 on the FDIC watch list.  Big banks lying about balance sheets.
   • Science: Only incremental discoveries.  Perhaps technology drives science now.
5. Global Liquidity remains the greatest risk; carry trades everywhere.  Inflation wherever the economy is not unemployment-impaired.  Now we will face a split world, just as the U.S. economy was split, this time caused by unemployment.

With consumer spending on entertainment slowing down, consumers will happily spend more to improve their at-home entertainment experience instead of splurging on outings to restaurants and movies. That means bigger TV screens to connect to video game consoles for family rounds of Rock Band on the Playstation 3, Xbox 360, or Nintendo Wii.

Read the article.

For me, this is right up there with the current PM of Australia running on a platform of broadband to the masses, and one to one education to the children.

Australia is living in the 21st century, based on its last election and current administration.  Perhaps the U.S. can now leave the 18th or 17th century, and join them.  That would be a relief.

Tonight, at the Washington Technology Industry Association (WTIA) Annual Predictions Dinner, I had the chance to be on a panel with Ben Elowitz, CEO of Wetpaint (and past co – founder, Blue Nile, the most successful online jewelry site); Matt McIlwain, managing director, Madrona Ventures; and Kelly Smith, Founding Partner, Curious Office.

The panel was moderated by John Cook, who has just come off writing a great column for the Seattle Times on local venture ops, to joining hands with well-known SNS member Todd Bishop, to form a new local site called Techflash.

The whole evening was enjoyable.  Some of the high points: everyone had a very high regard for Amazon’s cloud compute data center.  My suggestion of Microsoft being the stock to own going forward a year seemed to be well accepted, as at least a smart defensive maneuver.  Matt and I had some ideas about what might be done with EMC and VMware to make gobs more money than they are currently making, despite their recent capture of our genius / friend Paul Maritz.

I think the seasoned folk convinced the general crowd that more bad things were coming, both in the equities markets and on Main St.,  but that there were several ways to the exits, if you were paying attention.

I will soon be writing a full newsletter on this subject, and Members will learn more about which companies will be coming back first, in my estimation, and why.

All in all, it was a delightful eventing, and I thank Ken Meyer and the WTIA for including me, once again, in their Predictions Dinner.

Now I will start getting ready for our private release of SNS predictions for 2009.   These seem, increasingly, like the things folks could make real money on.  I hope we will see you with us in New York, at the Waldorf=Astoria Hotel, on December 11th, for our Fourth Annual meeting.

Last year’s attendees were perhaps the first people in the country to hear that the Federal Reserve had lost control of the U.S. economy, oil was going to break the $100 / bbl barrier, and the U.S. economy was going to split, favoring global technology companies even as finance and housing went down.

SNS members, have gotten used to knowing the news before it happens, and being ahead of their friends and competitors on the issues of large-scale, strategic changes in markets and products.

Because those advantages matter more in a down market, I’ll be doing what I can to put together a forward look that will be useful to our guests in the coming year. I hope you’ll join us, and benefit accordingly.

This is always an enjoyable evening, offering a chance to think outside the box, to meet new and old friends and make new business contacts at the reception, to enjoy an excellent dinner, and to be the first to hear our key predictions for the coming year.

As usual, the global business press will be joining us.

We have reduced the fees this year, in keeping with the new landscape. Space is limited, as past attendees know, so don’t wait too long to register ­ which you can do here:

https://www.tapsns.com/newyork/2008/registration.php